Sports editor Bob Meseroll was kind enough (I mean that) to correct some misinformation in the blog I posted yesterday about the Grizzlies needing to win at Northern Colorado Thursday to take second place and a first-round bye for the Big Sky Conference men’s basketball tourney.
And I quote: “The Griz can lose Thursday and have Portland State win twice and STILL get second place if Montana State beats UNC. The Griz would have a sweep of the Cats and Portland State would have a split.”
Every time we get down to this stage of the season, with a made scramble for at least a few of the tournament berths, someone comes up with a breakdown that, as UM sports information director Dave Guffey so aptly put it, could make your head spin.
Here’s the info Guff provided me today:
Weber State (12-1) – The Wildcats have clinched the top seed and the right to host the conference championship. Weber State will win the outright conference title with one more win, or a Montana loss. Weber State is at home Thursday against Northern Arizona and Saturday against Sacramento State. The Wildcats play at Montana State on March 3.
Montana (11-4) – Montana has clinched a tournament bid. Montana will finish either second or third. Montana will be second with one Portland State loss. If Montana and Portland State both finish 11-5, Montana will gain the No. 2 seed if any team other than Northern Colorado finishes fourth. Montana’s final regular-season game is Thursday at Northern Colorado.
To finish second
Win over UNC OR one PSU loss to either MSU or EWU
Loss to UNC and two PSU wins IF MSU defeats UNC (that would ensure that MSU would finish ahead of UNC in the standings)
Portland State (9-5) – Portland State has clinched a bid. Portland State can finish as high as second or as low as fifth. The Vikings play host to Montana State on Wednesday and are at Eastern Washington on Saturday.
To finish second
Wins over MSU and EWU AND UM loss to UNC AND UNC win over MSU (only way to do it)
To finish third
Wins over either MSU or EWU OR ISU loss to either NAU or SAC
To finish fifth:
Losses to MSU and EWU AND ISU wins over NAU and SAC AND MSU wins over WSU and UNC
(ISU is third, 3-1 in tiebreaker, MSU is fourth at 2-2, PSU is fifth at 1-3)
Idaho State (7-7) – Idaho State can finish as high as third or not make the postseason tournament. The Bengals will clinch a postseason bid with a victory. The Bengals play host to Sacramento State on Thursday and to Northern Arizona on Saturday.
To clinch a spot in the tournament
A win over either NAU or SAC OR a NAU loss to WSU OR if MSU wins one or none of their final three games OR an EWU win over PSU OR one Northern Colorado loss. ISU cannot lose a 7-9 tie to any team involved in the tie unless the only two teams in the tie are ISU and NAU.
To clinch fourth
Wins over NAU and SAC OR one win over either NAU or SAC and one loss by MSU to either PSU, UNC, or WSU OR with losses to NAU and SAC AND if MSU wins one or none of their final three games AND UNC does not sweep UM and MSU
To clinch third
Wins over NAU and SAC AND PSU losses to MSU and EWU
Montana State (6-7) – Montana State can finish as high as third or fail to qualify for the tournament. The Bobcats are at
To clinch a spot in the tournament
One win over either PSU or UNC or WSU OR one NAU and one EWU loss OR one NAU and a UM win OR one EWU and a UM win.
To clinch a home game
Two wins and two ISU losses provided one of the MSU wins is UNC OR MSU wins over PSU and WSU and two ISU losses and a UM win OR three wins and one ISU loss
Northern Colorado (6-8) – Northern Colorado can finish as high as fourth or not make the tournament. The Bears are seeking their first ever appearance in the Big Sky Championship.
To clinch a spot in the tournament
Two wins OR a win over UM and an NAU loss. NC can also get in with one win and three MSU losses, or one win and an EWU loss, or one win and no wins by MSU, EWU and NAU.
To clinch a home game
Two wins AND two ISU losses.
Eastern Washington (6-9) – Eastern Washington can finish no higher than sixth, or not make the tournament. The Eagles have one conference game remaining, on Saturday at home against Portland State. EWU also plays a non-conference game on Tuesday vs. Seattle.
*Win over PSU AND either three MSU losses or two UNC losses OR win over PSU and a UNC loss to Montana
NOTE: if UNC, NAU, and EWU all finish 6-10, NAU wins the tiebreaker if they defeat WSU but lose to ISU. If NAU defeats ISU but loses to WSU, then all three teams have identical results, and the RPI tiebreaker would be used to determine 6th, 7th, and 8th, and currently Eastern has the highest RPI of the tied teams. If NAU finishes 5-11, EWU and UNC can still tie at 6-10 and have identical results, going to the RPI tiebreak.
Northern Arizona (5-9) – Northern Arizona can finish as high as fourth our out of the tournament. Northern Arizona has two road games remaining, on Thursday at Weber State and on Saturday at Idaho State.
To clinch a spot in the tournament
Wins over WSU and ISU AND an ISU loss to SAC AND a PSU win over EWU AND both MSU and UNC do not finish 7-9.
If MSU, UNC, EWU, and NAU all finish 7-9 providing UNC beats UM but loses to MSU and ISU beats SAC; MSU is fifth (defeat of WSU, and a possible sweep, plus a win over Portland State) and NAU is sixth (win over WSU)
If MSU, UNC, EWU, and NAU all finish 7-9 providing UNC beats MSU but loses to UM and ISU beats SAC; UNC is fifth (4-2 against tied teams), MSU is eighth (2-4 against tied teams), and NAU is sixth (defeated WSU)
If ISU, MSU, UNC, EWU, and NAU all finish 7-9 providing UNC beats UM but loses to MSU; ISU is fourth (5-3 vs. tied teams), MSU is eighth (3-5 vs. tied teams), NAU is fifth (beat WSU), UNC is sixth (beat UM), and EWU is seventh (best win is PSU).
If ISU, MSU, UNC, EWU, and NAU all finish 7-9 providing UNC beats MSU but loses to UM; ISU and UNC are both (5-3 vs. tied teams), MSU is eighth (2-6 vs. tied teams), NAU is sixth (beat WSU) and EWU is seventh (best win is PSU). ISU is fourth (beat UM), and UNC is fifth.
To clinch a first round home game:
*Wins over WSU and ISU AND an ISU loss to SAC AND a PSU win over EWU AND MSU loss to PSU, UNC, and WSU AND a UM win over UNC.
Head spinning yet?
- Bill Schwanke