OK … let’s put our mouths where our money is. Many of you will be paying to see the playoff game Saturday against Wofford. And even if you’re not, let’s hear what you think the final score will be. You can add a little explanation if you want to clarify your position if you think it needs it.
I’ll start.
Montana 30, Wofford 28: I think Montana’s defense makes just enough plays, including a big stop late in the fourth quarter to win the game.
I’m writing this post from Portland, home to the Portland State Vikings, but, more importantly, my wife’s family. I’m going to be spending Thanksgiving here, which is great, I enjoy my in-laws very much … but I am going to be missing the first playoff game, which is always a little bit of a bummer for me.
Still, it’s chilly here (for western Oregon), which I’m assuming means it will remain chilly in Missoula for this Saturday, and that is a good thing. Southern teams generally have not fared well coming to our little burg, especially when it’s an iceburg. The fact that we have a nice turf field helps them out a little, but I still think it’s got to be something of a “hello” to step on a field in front of 20,000 screaming people in cold Montana.
Let’s hope the Terriers’ playoff inexperience helps out here, because I do think these guys are plenty dangerous. If they get comfortable in front of the crowd, and you guys sit on your hands, it could be a long day in Grizville.
But I think with our defense, it will be pretty tough for anyone to score too much on the Griz. As long as the offense moves the ball, we should be OK.
I spent the last couple of days talking to Wofford alumni who live in western Montana. The Missoulian is going to be running a story on these folks, likely in Saturday’s paper, so be prepared for a fun read. There are some fairly interesting folks in our neighborhoods, even if they don’t reveal themselves to be Terriers. Make sure you check out Saturday’s paper to find out who they are. Considering it’s a small, private school in the South of 2,000-some students, it really is amazing we have the number of former Woffordians up here that we do.
Anyway, I’ll be checking in throughout the day Saturday, but if you feel like posting your thoughts as the game goes along, please do so. I’ll be interested to hear all about it.
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First of all, the Griz looked great in the second half one more time. I’d still like to see them put an entire game together, but they looked a lot more dangerous going into the playoffs, which is a good thing. But let’s get to the topic on everyone’s mind. Who will Montana host inthe first round of the playoffs, and will the Griz get the No. 2 seed? No one except the playoff committee truly knows that right now, but a little research gives some indication of what some other folks think is going to happen, specifically the guys at College Sporting News and columnist Charles Burton. I’ll say one thing, if Burton is right, the Griz will have some good news and bad news waiting for them Sunday morning. The good news is that Burton has the Griz as the No. 2 seed, which would guarantee them three homes games as long as they keep winning. The bad news is that CSN has the Griz facing Wofford in the first round. Even worse news is that Burton has UMass or defending national champ Appalachian State waiting in the second round. UMass took the Griz out last year in the semis, so they wouldn’t be nervous at all coming here, and Appy State has talent up the wazzoo. Talk about brutal. No one is easy once the playoffs start, but Wofford is the co-champion of the Southern Conference. The Terriers’ big win of the season was a 42-31 victory over Appalachian State. Worst loss was a 24-13 decision to Elon. Wofford also lost to Georgia Southern in a close one, 38-35, which is no terrible thing. What Wofford brings, of course, is speed. Oh, and more speed. Considering Appalachian State could be the second-round opponent (in this scenario), it might not be a bad idea to tear up the turf in Washington-Griz and go back to that nice muddy field we used to pound Georgia Southern back in 1995. Of course, this is only one man’s innocent ravings. Another good first-round bet in my book would be Eastern Illinois or Eastern Kentucky. Considering one of Wofford’s three losses was to D-I N.C. State, I think it would be an awfully low ranking to place them basically as a No. 15 seed. I do think a second-round matchup with App State or UMass is very possible, however, as both teams are a good fit for coming to Missoula based on where they will likely be seeded. Ironically, I think if Montana could somehow end up surviving the first two rounds, and, say, host McNeese State in the semifinals, they would have a better opportunity of winning that game than they would of winning either of their first two games. Like the Big Sky, I don’t think the Southland is that strong of a conference, compared to the Southern or Atlantic. This is always one of my favorite sports weekends of the year, simply because of the speculation and digging up information on possible opponents. It’s always interesting to compare stats, and try to figure out who would make a favorable or unfavorable opponent. My personal opinion is that the kind of team that would give Montana the most trouble is one with speed. I really think Montana could handle a defensive-minded team that focuses on ball control. But the one weakness I see in UM’s defense is the tendency to fall for the play-fake and give up big plays in their secondary, which teams like Wofford and Appy State are very good at. As a football fan, I would love to see the Griz take on Appy State in Washington-Griz. As a Griz fan, it would make me pretty nervous. Still, regardless of what happens, it promises to be another fun playoff season. One other note: I completely agree with Burton’s pick of Eastern Washington facing McNeese State in the first round. That’s right where I would send the Eagles, and I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see Eastern give the Cowboys all they can handle. |
| So … things have gotten mildly distracting in Griz country this week. It’s hard to tell what kind of effect this will have. Could be a problem, or it could be one of those galvanizing, rally the troops, circle the wagons kinds of deals. In some ways, it could be just what the Griz need to make a big run.
From a football perspective, it will hurt to lose Coleman. From a we-don’t-need-criminals-on-the-team perspective, hopefully this can help the UM football team turn a page. Personally, I don’t hold Hauck that responsible. Every coach at every major program has some of these issues, we just don’t always hear about them. Really, I’m more interested in what happens Saturday. MSU is playing better, and I think the Griz will play well, too. Depending on field conditions, it should be a good game. Playoff position is critical, as it seems to be every year we play the Cats … but the game doesn’t need anything else to be fun. Enjoy it, Griz fans. |
Montana 27, Idaho State 14
You know, we spend a lot of time talking big picture here, but this season there are some Griz that really are fun to watch. Top of the list is Kroy Biermann. It will be an absolute shame if this stud doesn’t win the Buchanan Award. In all the years of watching Griz football, I have never seen a player as disruptive as Kroy is. Tim Hauck was the best defensive player other than Kroy I’ve seen, but Biermann is so good, so tough on opposing teams, that I’d put him right up there with Hauck. His motor is as good as it gets, and both Hauck and Biermann are standouts on special teams. I still look back and think about some of the plays Timmy made, and I think we’ll all remember Biermann when he hangs it up for UM.
Secondly, Colt Anderson has been a blast to watch this year. Anderson reminds a lot of people of Hauck, and rightly so. He has great instincts, and his tackling is so similar to Hauck’s it’s frightening … especially for opposing ball carriers. It will be great to have Colt back to anchor the defense again next year.
Finally, kudos go out tonight to Ryan Bagley. It was horrible what happened today, and I think all of Griz Nation feels terrible for him after breaking his arm against ISU. He saved the season with the catch against Eastern, and to see Bagley cry as he left the field Saturday in Pocatello was heartbreaking. Thanks, Ryan, for everything you did for Griz football. You will be greatly missed the rest of the year.
Now to the game.
There were a lot of similarities to the Northern Arizona game in that the Griz struggled a bit in the first half, but then came out and really dominated the second half. While it would be great to see Montana put two halves together, at least they are making some good adjustments at halftime.
Cole Bergquist has taken some shots on this blog, but I really thought he played well today, especially in the second half. I was particularly impressed with the check-offs he made in the second half, and the way he ran the offense.
It was also comforting to see Greg Coleman run the ball so well in the absence of Hilliard, who could be out for awhile depending on how the hand surgery goes. Regardless, Coleman is a good back, strong and fast, and I don’t think they lose much with him in the game.
Now we’re on to the Cats, who showed some real life in Portland after a rough couple of games. Their defense played fantastic against the Vikings. I really can’t see MSU moving the ball against Montana too much, so I think it will come down to how well the Griz can move the ball in Bozeman. If the Cats can force a few turnovers, they’ll have a chance.
Montana, for some reason, has not played well against the Bobcats over the last few years, particularly on offense. Hopefully that will change Saturday.
Griz 34, Vikings 31
Not sure what to think about that one. Offense made some nice plays in the first half, while the defense, by Bobby Hauck’s own admission, did not play well at all. Then in the second half, the offense disappeared most of the time against a very suspect Vikings defense, while the Griz defense really kicked it in gear.
For me, this was a step back after the NAU game, which I thought UM pretty much dominated. But it was another win, which the Griz somehow keep finding a way to pull out.
One thing is becoming clear … at least in my opinion. This isn’t a team that realistically is going to compete for the national championship. That’s not meant as a knock against the Griz at all. It’s more a matter of being truthful with ourselves. I’ve been waiting to see some sort of consistency on offense that would signal hope, but I don’t think it’s going to happen.
How can we really expect this team, with no real consistent offense, to compete with the other big boys around the country? Don’t get me wrong, the defense probably stacks up with anybody’s in I-AA. But every week it seems like we’re gasping and stretching to beat every Big Sky team we play.
I know, I know, everybody brings their “A game” against UM, but supposedly the Griz are bringing their A game too, and right now it’s barely enough. Unless the rest of the Big Sky Conference is a lot better than it looks, I don’t think we’re that scary.
Voters in the poll sure have noticed, dropping the Griz to No. 4 despite being undefeated. And, probably, it’s only fair. UMass had only one loss, to No. 2 Boston College, before Saturday; North Dakota State is a beast (even if they can’t compete in the playoffs), and Northern Iowa is steamrolling through the Gateway.
HOWEVER, if Montana can find a way to win its final two games, they are probably still going to get a No. 2 seed. Northern Iowa is well on its way to an undefeated season and the No. 1 ranking. The Panthers beat Iowa State this year, and have dominated the Gateway. UMass, which fell to Rhode Island on Saturday, 12-6 in overtime, will drop down a few notches. With North Dakota State out of the picture for one last season, that means Montana will be a solid No. 2 in the playoff rankings. And we all know that a No. 2 slot means the road to Chattanooga would come through Missoula.
That certainly would help in getting the Griz back in the title picture, but just like last year, I can’t see Montana beating teams like UMass, or Appalachian State, if they had to come here. I’m confident both of those teams could put up points on the Griz defense, and I’m not at all confident our offense will be able to return the favor.
But, hey, I could be totally wrong. Wouldn’t be the first time … or the hundredth time. But I would be curious to hear your thoughts on the matter.
Only in the Big Sky Conference does this seem possible … make that the old Big Sky Conference. That Portland State could score 68 points and lose to Weber State 73-68 is just the beginning of the circus. That it was Weber State that put up the 73 points is surprising enough, but that it happened in this decade borders on shocking.
The Big Sky Conference used to be the league where footballs filled the air, and defenses were an afterthought. Not any more. Recently, scoring has been at a premium, especially when Montana is involved. Only those Bobcat killers of Northern Colorado allowed the Griz to score more than 24 points in a league game this season. Used to be, on fall afternoons in Cheney, Missoula, Bozeman, Ogden, Pocatello and Flagstaff, that scoreboard operators put 24 points on the board just to warm up their fingers before a single football had been snapped.
Where have you gone, Casey Robinson? (Griz, 1996-99)
But we digress.
The Big Sky isn’t the Big Fly league anymore. There’s more of an emphasis on defense nowadays — that’s the positive spin. The other possibility is that offense in the Big Sky has taken a nosedive. Or that offenses have changed their focus to a grind-it-out approach — that’s the other positive spin.
Starting in 2001, the top scoring team in the Big Sky has averaged about 34 points a game. The high mark came in 2004 when Eastern scored 37.5 points a game. That was also the high point for Montana this decade, when it averaged nearly 36 points a game on its way to a runner-up finish in the national championship in Bobby Hauck’s second year.
In the last two seasons, however, Montana averaged 25.5 (2005) and 27.5 (2006), leading to the consternation among some fans. In 2003, Hauck’s first year at the helm, UM led the league in scoring at 33 points a game — its only scoring title since 2001.
Conversely, UM has led the league in scoring defense the past two seasons and is well on its way to doing it again this year, giving up a meager 11 points a game at this point.
So what does all this statistical mumbo-jumbo mean? Not much really. But it does point to a trend of lower scoring the past couple of years, and certainly lower scoring than the 1990s, when Montana, Idaho and, for a few years, Boise State were blowing up the scoreboard.
What do you prefer? Does it matter at all, as long as the Griz win? For most fans, I don’t think it’s a matter of winning pretty, as much as it is the fear that Montana will find itself in a shootout with a strong offensive team in the playoffs and not be able to keep up.
Of course, you could argue that Montana won’t get in a shootout with anybody, because no one will be able to roll up very many points on this stellar defense. But Eastern Washington, which is realistically probably a a No. 13 or No. 14 team in I-AA, certainly piled up the yards against the Griz, and but for a couple of turnovers, could have piled up the points, too.
I guess we’ll find out if it matters or not.
Copyright Missoulian, a division of Lee Enterprises.
